Health Science Monitor

en Estimation of the reproductive number of COVID-19 in Iran and studying the role of health measures and social restrictions in changes of this index آمار زیستی کاربردی و اپیدمیولوژی Applied Biostatistics and Epidemiology پژوهشي Research Article Background & Aims: The reproductive number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can reflect what level of health measures and social restrictions are needed to control the disease. Hence, this study was aimed to estimate the reproductive number of COVID-19 in Iran and study the role of health measures and social restrictions in changes of this index. Materials & Methods: In this study, the data required to estimate the reproductive number of COVID-19 was collected from 4372 people with COVID-19 referred to Dr. Masih Daneshvari Hospital in Tehran and also the statistics of the Ministry of Health of Iran. The role of health measures and social restrictions was also examined in changing this number. Results: Based on the study results, the reproductive number of COVID-19 was estimated to be about 2.75 in Iran. Considering a minimum of 10% and a maximum of 90% for the number of health measures and social restrictions, this number would be decreased from 2.48 to 0.28, respectively. Based on these results, the minimum rate of health measures and social restrictions to reduce the reproductive number of COVID-19 was 70% in Iran. At this level of health measures and social restrictions, the reproductive number of COVID-19 would be 0.82. Conclusion: Estimating the reproduction number of COVID-19 and studying the role of health measures and social restrictions on the changes in this number will provide an appropriate level of preventive measures to control the pandemic of this disease. COVID-19, Epidemic, Health measures, Reproductive number, Social restrictions 46 52 http://hsm.umsu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-281-2&slc_lang=en&sid=1 Mehdi Kazempour Dizaji mkazempour@sbmu.ac.ir 10031947532846003442 10031947532846003442 Yes Mycobacteriology Research Center (MRC), National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Rahim Roozbahani rahimroozbahani1347@gmail.com 10031947532846003443 10031947532846003443 No Clinical Tuberculosis and Epidemiology Research Center, National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Mohammad Varahram mo.varahram@gmail.com 10031947532846003444 10031947532846003444 No Mycobacteriology Research Center (MRC), National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Arda Kiani ardakiani@sbmu.ac.ir 10031947532846003445 10031947532846003445 No Tracheal Diseases Research Center, National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Ali Zare azare144@gmail.com 10031947532846003446 10031947532846003446 No Department of Biostatistics, National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD) , Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Atefe Abedini dr.abedini110@sbmu.ac.ir 10031947532846003447 10031947532846003447 No Chronic Respiratory Diseasesr Research Center, National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Mohammad Ali Emamhadi emamhm@sbmu.ac.ir 10031947532846003448 10031947532846003448 No Department Forensic Medicine, School of Medicine Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Syeyd Alireza Nadji s.a.nadji@sbmu.ac.ir 10031947532846003449 10031947532846003449 No Virology Research Center, National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Niloufar Alizedeh Kolahdozi n.alizadeh@sbmu.ac.ir 10031947532846003450 10031947532846003450 No Department of Biostatistics, National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Majid Marjani marjani216@hotmail.com 10031947532846003451 10031947532846003451 No Clinical Tuberculosis and Epidemiology Research Center, National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran